Tuesday, May 23, 2017

Electoral mish-mash, or how to win when you lose an election

Today was a day rich in electoral content but woefully poor in electoral solutions.

From chavismo side, at another failed rally of forced supporters, Maduro went ahead and announced how the constitutional assembly will be elected. Well, half of it anyway. The part corresponding to the corporative members is still unclear but that is not a problem for chavismo since these members elected through "organizations" will go at least 80% for them, courtesy of all the political controls and apartheid like access of the non chavista population.

What chavismo needs is to find a way to get 40% of the elected members through direct vote while having at best 30% of the votes. That 40 plus the 80 would give chavismo 60% of the seats with, well, 30% of the votes. Game over.

The chosen solution was to vote by municipal district. One elected member per district, regardless of the population.  I published my quick count early today on Twitter and the result is here again.

The four strongholds of the opposition, Zulia, Calabozo, Miranda and Lara with roughly 7.245.000 voters get 69 representatives.

Four less populated strongholds of chavismo, Yaracuy, Portuguesa, Trujillo and Apure with roughly 1.878.000 voters get 59 seats.

In short, 1 vote from chavista states is equal to 3,3 votes in opposition states. The end, BEFORE the constitutional assembly is elected, of the one man one vote rule.

The opposition, besides not accepting that, promptly demanded today that the CNE held a referendum on whether we actually wanted a new constitution. As it is the right of the National Assembly to request, by the way.

While the regime prepares the necessary high court rulings to invalidate the Assembly request, while publishing the necessary rulings to kill the one man one vote thingy, the regime went ahead tonight with the second part of its plan. That delinquent blood stained hands which is the CNE head Tibisay Lucena announced that the governors elections would be held on December 10 while a date for the electing the constitutional assembly will be set in a few days for some Sunday in July.  A note on the blood stained Tibisay, a true delinquent. The recent unrest and protest and disorder and injured and deaths in the country are caused by her silence and maneuvers to annul all the due constitutionally required elections. So that you know.

So what is wrong with Tibisay announcement tonight.

1) The referendum will not go, violating precedents respected by Chavez himself, and the requirements of the  current constitution as to the people being asked whether they want to change it.

2) If the constitutional assembly is elected in July it would be sworn in early August and right then it would not only annul the current National Assembly but also suspend the elections for governor. The excuse would be very simple: we need to figure the role of the governors in the new constitution  before we elect them.

To be more cynical, more of a cheat, more of legal delinquent is difficult!  Oxymoron intended on legal delinquent.

And the cherry is that Maduro also wants to seat the constitutional assembly where the National one already seats. That is, dissolution already announced.

Of course the opposition cannot accept that deal.

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NOTE

I wrote this as all details are not available yet. So some estimates may change. However what will not change is the intent of the regime. That post is accurate on that.

13 comments:

  1. Daniel

    I still read too much copy describing Maduro as a 'socialist'.

    Its the same old stuff I heard as a child listening to Havana and Moscow on my shortwave radio describing Cuba and the USSR as 'socialist' countries.

    There are far too many sympathizers of the regime in the media as I see it.

    And they will still be that way no matter how many suffer and die in Venezuela.

    When I was a student at the university, I still remember the "African Studies" major (the guy who shouted 'yeah they got him when Ronald Reagan was shot") producing a radio documentary asserting the CIA was responsible for the 900 deaths at Jonestown, Guyana back in the 1970's.

    He used the audio tape made by the "Reverend Jim Jones" speaking as the poison drink was mixed up and passed around to his audience. Jones talked about all the 'enemies' of his "People's Temple" but he also told us what he was all about on that tape when he described his organization as "Marxist Leninist".

    And still to this day there are people who live in their delusion that Communists ("Marxist Leninists") are good people with a good system that would work if it wouldn't be for its 'enemies' like the 'extreme right', the 'CIA' etc. etc.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Anonymous1:24 PM

    I fail to see the relevance at this point of the constitutional assembly? The current constitution has been completely trampled to no end, the existing assembly has no authority or power, no one believes it is a democracy, the people will be no calmer or happier it is simply the regime doing all it can to aggravate the people and the world. It has absolutely no relevance and will change absolutely nothing. It will assist the opposition as they can stop with the delusion that they have some constitutional power as they never have. Who ever is pulling the strings on the whole ordeal is mocking the people and world at every turn just to show that they can. Likely some rich powerful people who want to show what they can do and likely will find a way to make a fortune doing it. The kind of people who control governments.

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  3. Venezuelans, your nightmare will NOT END until you first start "liberating" your patriotic provinces of Zulia, Calabozo, Miranda and Lara from your dictatorship by FORCE! There is a high price to pay for liberty!

    ReplyDelete
  4. Roberto Carlos6:40 PM

    Oh goodie now we can look forward to Daniel taking out his slide rule and Excel charts to handicap the "consituyente". And then another post to tell us how smart and right he was in his predictions.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Anonymous7:06 PM

      RC.. you criticize one of the most respected Venezuelan boggers, one of the few still on the ground providing facts and perspective, and you provide nothing but vacuous criticism.. f* off.. you are a waste of carbon. Laz

      Delete
    2. Oh dear, it has been a long time RC had not spewn his bile around here.

      If you were a serious, and objective, and regular reader you would know that since 2013 I do not do electoral forecasting. I think I announced it in a post in 2012?

      But of course, for some obscure reason your presence here is strictly directed at insulting me, and readers whenever you can link.

      I do not think homophobia is your excuse. You are just a spiteful jerk.

      Delete
  5. Most respected Venezuelan blogger, like being World's Tallest Midget.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Not only is this blog respected, it is treasured as a source of real information on the ground. With unique perspectives and insights. Spoken in realistic, and painfully truthful terms. I think Daniel gives the world and his readers the straight up truth about daily life and the struggles of a beautiful country that has gotten lost in the nightmare of a truly horrific, corrupted, and nefarious Dictatorship.

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  7. Ross F7:18 AM

    Can there be any other possible ultimate result to all this strife other than civil war? I guess it depends on how much the Venezuelans want their country back

    ReplyDelete
  8. The regime is looking for some sort of a physical fight, either from the USA or its own people allowing for it to bring in Russian troops to secure itself. Is exactly what Cuba did. At that point the people are put under military curfew and anyone opposing is severely oppressed.

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  9. Anonymous11:19 AM

    I see Goldman Sachs just bought billions in PDVSA held bonds last week. This pretty much tells you this regimes is supported by the USA and is going no where anytime soon.

    ReplyDelete
  10. Ross F5:05 PM

    It's actually only about $US870 mill and they got a discount but it'll keep Maduro et al. going for a while. GS is expecting the bond price to rise when Maduro's government falls. It could be a long wait.

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Thats just lip service after they were called out on it. Same as they pretended they didnt buy them from the govt. Says they know Maduro will be in power long enough for them to get a positive return on them. Any normal criminal enterprise would have defaulted on this debt by now. Just shows the USA wealthy and hence govt is behind all of this. They know from the inside that the regime will pay this debt and for how long they will be in power. Those rich are making a fortune legally in interest. Then when the regime ends the USA will negotiate a change in power and stipulate behind the seens that these debts need to be paid and they can control any new govt with the terms. These rich rule the world and have no care for human suffering.

      Delete

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